The "3.21" explosion accident of Jiangsu Xiangshui Tianjia Company has attracted widespread attention from all walks of life, and its impact has already affected the coking and coal industries. After the "3.21" explosion accident in Xiangshui, Jiangsu, Tianjin, Shaanxi, Henan, Shandong, Guizhou, Heilongjiang and other places have successively deployed safety production hazard investigation work. Although the focus is on chemical production enterprises, some provinces have also made special emphasis on coal mine safety production. So, will the "3.21" explosion accident have a substantial impact on the stock market chemical sector and chemical futures varieties?
Yesterday, the markets of Hong Kong and Hong Kong experienced a volatile decline. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3043.03 points, down 1.97%; The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9701.70 points, down 1.80%; The ChiNext Index closed at 1668.84 points, down 1.48%. The Hang Seng Index closed at 28523.35 points, down 2.03%.
From a sector perspective, the petrochemical sector experienced the largest decline, with the stock price of "Three Barrels of Oil" plummeting significantly, leading the decline in blue chip stocks. Among them, China National Offshore Oil Corporation closed down 4.11%, China Petroleum Corporation closed down 3.79%, and China Petroleum&Chemical Corporation closed down 3.38%.
Chemical products leading the decline
Yesterday, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced significant overall declines. On one hand, this was driven by the sharp drop in the US stock market last Friday, and on the other hand, the stock market has continued to rise since the beginning of the year, indicating a certain need for adjustment. ”Li Jie, an energy and chemical researcher at Jianxin Futures, said in an interview with reporters.
Regarding the significant outflow of over 10 billion yuan of funds from Beijing yesterday, Yang An, the head of energy and chemical research and development at Haitong Futures, stated that the main reason for the withdrawal of funds is that global economic concerns have once again troubled the market.
Last week, the poor manufacturing data released by multiple countries such as the United States, Europe, and Japan once again raised concerns about a slowdown in the global economy and oil demand, which dampened hopes that the global economic slowdown could improve. International stock markets, including those in the United States and Europe, fell sharply last Friday. Although domestic stock markets tried to resist after opening low today, they eventually rebounded and took the upper hand, and there was an accelerated decline in the late trading session. Yang An said that the mentality of domestic stock market investors has begun to shift from optimism to caution.
It is worth mentioning that in yesterday's stock market, the petrochemical sector led the decline, with "three barrels of oil" leading the decline.

In the view of Huang Liqiang, the head of the investment consulting department of Jinshi Futures, there are two main reasons for the significant decline in the stock price of "three barrels of oil". Firstly, last Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the United States plummeted by 1.77%, causing a significant drop in the domestic stock market. Under the influence of the overall market atmosphere, the stock price of three barrels of oil fell; Secondly, the significant drop in international crude oil prices has dragged down domestic crude oil prices.
Due to the fact that China's chemical products are mainly imported, with the easing of trade frictions between China and the United States, imports from the United States will increase, indirectly dispersing the profits of the three barrels of oil, "said Huang Liqiang.
Li Jie believes that the overall performance of the petrochemical sector is not bad. Yesterday, in the A-share market, the petrochemical sector fell by 1.07%, which is not a significant decline. Moreover, the integration of the entire process of Hengli Group's integrated equipment last weekend also released a major positive news to the market. Today, most refining companies also saw significant gains. Energy stocks in Hong Kong, including Shenhua and Yanmei, have also fallen by more than 4%.
From the perspective of the futures market, in the energy and chemical sector, crude oil, fuel oil and other varieties experienced the highest decline. Yang An stated that chemical products were relatively resistant to decline during the day, but as they had already broken through last week and experienced a significant drop, they are still in a downward trend overall.
Explosion accident continues to ferment harmful chemicals
In the eyes of market participants, the recent explosion at the 321 Jiangsu Yancheng Chemical Plant will become an important factor affecting the future trend of chemical prices. At present, the explosion incident in Jiangsu has had a very serious impact and has attracted close attention from high-level officials. The government has stated that it will strengthen the risk and hidden danger investigation and safety production work in key industries such as hazardous chemicals.
In Li Jie's view, Tianjia Yi Chemical, which had a production capacity of 17000 tons of m-phenylenediamine due to the explosion, is a dye intermediate enterprise and already belongs to a highly polluting industry. Coupled with the fact that this year marks the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, it is likely that environmental and safety inspections will be further deepened in the future.

 In the later stage, the government's safety and environmental inspections on the production of chemical enterprises, especially the review of safety inspections, will have a significant impact on chemical products. Currently, the listed chemical futures mainly consist of upstream bulk commodities with concentrated production capacity and strong enterprise strength, so the impact of safety inspections is relatively small. However, the downstream of chemical futures is mostly dominated by small factories, which have poor strength and safety hazards, and are therefore greatly affected by safety inspections. "Huang Liqiang said that in this situation, the government level risk and hazard investigation caused by the Yancheng explosion has a more negative effect on chemical futures than a positive effect.
Yang An also stated that this move has a relatively small impact on large and medium-sized petrochemical enterprises that have attached great importance to safety and environmental protection in recent years, but it is expected to shut down or even eliminate a batch of outdated and unqualified production capacity, which will create a tight supply situation for market products.
Yesterday, some chemical products showed resistance to the sharp decline in crude oil prices, which reflects market expectations. However, once the overall operating rate of the market is affected, it will have a negative impact on the demand for upstream raw materials. However, the specific impact on different petrochemical industries needs to be viewed differently, "Yang An said.
Huang Liqiang stated that currently, the prices of chemical products are showing an overall upward trend of oscillation, but the strong price trend is largely due to the continuous upward trend of crude oil and the shift of the cost center, resulting in a weak supply-demand pattern. The later price trend depends on the game between cost and supply and demand, whether cost collapses first or supply and demand improve first. At present, chemical products are generally undergoing maintenance in the second quarter, so the problem of oversupply of chemical products is expected to ease and prices are expected to rebound.